Assembly decoration medium-term 300 billion, long-term trillion market to be developed.
Release date:
2021-05-06
Author:
Source:
BIM and Assembled Decoration Information No.1
As the assembly type is still in the early stage of development, the assembly type decoration needs to be further improved in terms of component library, production capacity, personalized design and consumer cognition, the consumption attribute needs to be improved, and the To C end has not yet formed a scale. However, the short duration of assembly decoration, easy to disassemble the characteristics of natural suitable for the expansion of To B business, the current industry customers mainly to the national security of housing projects, long-term rental apartments and hotels, fine decoration housing and other areas gradually release. Based only on the three directions of national security housing, long-term rental apartments and hotels, the size of the assembly decoration industry is expected to be close to 300 billion by 2025.
Analysis of affordable housing market
As the assembly type is still in the early stage of development, the assembly type decoration needs to be further improved in terms of component library, production capacity, personalized design and consumer cognition, the consumption attribute needs to be improved, and the To C end has not yet formed a scale. However, the short duration of assembly decoration, easy to disassemble the characteristics of natural suitable for the expansion of To B business, the current industry customers mainly to the national security of housing projects, long-term rental apartments and hotels, fine decoration housing and other areas gradually release. Based only on the three directions of national security housing, long-term rental apartments and hotels, the size of the assembly decoration industry is expected to be close to 300 billion by 2025.
The scale of the security housing project is expected to be 10 billion: the construction plan of the national security housing project in recent years is mainly shed reform. According to the data of 2015, the total construction plan of the security housing project for the whole year is 7.4 million sets, of which 5.8 million sets are shantytowns and 1.6 million sets are non shantytowns. From the perspective of the state's financial expenditure on the security of housing projects, the amount of investment in non-shantytown renovation shows a downward trend, so we estimate that the current construction of non-shantytown security housing projects is about 1 million sets. In terms of shed reform, the state plans to build another 15 million units in 18-20 years, 6.26 million units in 18 years, 2.85 million units in 19 years, and 5.89 million units in 2020.
By 2020, the state will basically complete the task of shantytown renovation, and no overall plan will be set for shantytown renovation after 2020. In 2015, there were more than 0.1 billion people living in shanty towns in China. It is estimated that 33.16 million shanty towns will be renovated from 2015 to 2020. If 2.5 people/household is calculated, a total of about 80 million people will move out of shanty towns. It is estimated that nearly 20 million people will still live in shanty towns by 2020. Although the state will no longer formulate specific renovation plans, we believe that the follow-up renovation will continue to advance, but the scale will significantly decrease, it is assumed that the annual renovation volume will be around 500000 units in 2021-2025.
In terms of matching rate, the state plans to realize the assembly construction of 70% of the government affordable housing in the country by 2025. We assume that the assembly decoration rate of the assembly building will reach 80% by then. If the decoration standard of 1000 yuan per square meter of the affordable housing is based on, we expect that the annual scale of some assembly decoration of the affordable housing project will be over 10 billion yuan in 19 to 25 years and will exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025.


Analysis of the long-term rental apartment market
The long-term rental apartment market is expected to see a significant expansion. The national policy of "simultaneous rent and sale" has been introduced one after another, and the era of rent and sale with the same power may come. As an important part of the rental market, long-term rental apartments have more room for growth. At present, there are about 0.19 billion million rental population in China. With the promotion of national policies and other factors, the rental market is expected to usher in sustained growth. According to the research consulting forecast, the rental population is expected to reach 0.248 billion in 2023.
At present, the brand penetration rate of long-term rental apartments in China's first-tier cities is 5%, that in second-tier cities is 1%, and the national average is about 2%. Compared with the international market, the brand penetration rate of long-term rental apartments (31.7 in the United States) still has a large room for improvement. Ruixin Real Estate Research Institute estimates that the market penetration rate of long-term rental apartments is expected to reach 20% in 2025. Assuming that the unit price of long-term rental apartment decoration is 1000 yuan/flat, the price of single flat decoration is increasing at a rate of 3%, and the per capita rental area is about 25m2, thus it is estimated that by 2025, when the penetration rate of assembly decoration reaches 80%, the market capacity of long-term rental apartment assembly decoration will reach 205.4 billion yuan.

Hotel Market Analysis
The assembled scale of hotels is expected to be nearly 50 billion yuan: in 2017, the total number of rooms in the hotel accommodation industry nationwide will be 15.481 million. referring to STR data, the total hotel supply in China will grow by about 4% in 14-17 years, so we assume that the total number of rooms in the accommodation industry will still maintain an annual growth rate of 4% from 2018 to 2025. In 2017, the total number of high-star hotel rooms was 2.95 million. According to the data of China Hotel Association, the compound growth rate of high-star hotels in the first 10 years was 5.2. We assume that from 2018 to 2025, the number of high-star hotel rooms will maintain an annual growth rate of 5%.
In addition, assuming that the average area of single rooms in high-star hotels is 25 square meters, the average area of single rooms in other accommodation types is 15 square meters, the average decoration price of new rooms in high-star hotels is 5000 yuan/square meter in 19 years, and the average decoration price of new rooms in other accommodation types is 1500 yuan/square meter, the renovation price is half of the decoration price of new houses, and the average decoration price maintains an annual growth rate of 5%. In addition, the penetration rate of prefabricated decoration in hotel decoration is expected to reach 60% by 2025, and we expect the market capacity of prefabricated decoration in the hotel industry to reach 48 billion yuan by 2025.
Hotel Assembly Decoration Market Capacity Estimation

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